Ramblings about KY studs

Discussion and analysis of thoroughbred stallions.

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henthorn
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Postby henthorn » Thu Sep 01, 2005 11:50 am

After attending the Texas sale, I was also considering Valid Expectations, since he is very popular at the sales, and her Affirmed sire status would definitely bring additional attention to the foal.

Llbean, we may well decide to return to Saarland. I've also considered Include as a contender.

Aurora, I wouldn't be traveling as far as Ontario, but thanks for the info on Tomahawk.
Rocking H

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Thu Sep 01, 2005 4:11 pm

hi henthorn

You wrote (as a factor in your stallion selection process) "I'd rather stay at $25K and under if I thought it made sense."

I suggest that Successful Appeal at $25,000 (and possibly even more) is EXCEPTIONAL value.

Take a look at him closely...his stats...numbers and percentages...WOW. When you factor in the very limited opportunities he's had...it's clear...he's the REAL THING...a genuine...honest to goodness...REAL SIRE.

Successful Appeal...WOW...as far as I'm concerned.

Caveat...in the past SA's been known to be slow (or worse) in the shed (on occasion). His fertility is good...but apparently he has been hesitant (sometimes) when it came to mounting and covering some mares. Walmac-Lex has made it quite clear that they have successfully dealt with the issue (including acupuncture for something related to his back etc). Late this breeding season (2005) he had colic surgery also.

I suggest ask the hard questions (of Walmac)...but if Successful Appeal is back at 100% for 2006...don't overlook him...he is the REAL DEAL.

Respectfully

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Thu Sep 01, 2005 5:11 pm

Henthorn---If you can't get to Northern Afleet you should also consider Menifee and Eltish. If she were my mare I don't think I would spend more than 15k on a stud fee for this mare. Am I missing something about her that you really like?
best regards Brendan

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FOS
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Postby FOS » Tue Sep 06, 2005 7:00 pm

hi bcassidy

I expect that unless Afleet Alex sparkles once again prior to announcing his sire Northern Afleet's stud fee for 2006...or Northern Afleet comes up with another runner which captures the imagination before stud fee announcement-time...Northern Afleet's advertised stud fee for 2006 should not exceed $25k.

Furthermore...I suggest that NA's connections could be backing themselves into a corner if they decide to stand him for one-penny more than $25k. Even $25k might not be so easy to accomplish if filling a HUGE book with quality mares is to be a priority in 2006...as I expect would certainly be the case. As you know...this is often a game of what have you done for me lately...

..and recent sales results might affect many breeders' willingness to sign contracts that don't seem to be extremely attractive. I sense that confidence among many breeders has been shaken by recent sales results...which for the most part report decreases in mean and median averages and increases in RNA's...not to mention the number of Outs...hmmm.

bcassidy...you wrote "Taylor Made may be in a predictament because of the Our Emblem debacle."
Our Emblem...of course...but I suggest that Taylor Made has to deal with the reality that they have had not just one...but a number of sire flops in recent years...stallions which they touted highly. I suggest it's difficult (and probably not particularly prudent) to forget or ignore that fact. Our Emblem at $35k...Artax at $30k...Exploit at $25k...etc etc etc to name just a few...OUCH, OUCH, and OUCH again. It might be fair to say that many breeders who trusted Taylor Made experienced financial blows as a result. Is it unreasonable to expect that some of those might be a bit gun-shy (maybe an understatement) and/or might not be so willing to breed there again...unless the numbers are exceptional.

For what it's worth...I have never heard so many negatives from so many re: Taylor Made...what are you hearing?

People are often diplomatic in this game...but are quick to smile and move on when burned once or more by the same farm and/or agents etc.

Northern Afleet at $25k is probably right on target...although I expect not a slam-dunk to attract 125+- top mares. But at an advertised stud fee of $25k they can probably do what's necesary to make it happen. If and when another Northern Afleet hits, Taylor Made could play the game and adjust (up) the farm price. I say don't stand him for an advertised stud fee in excess of $25k unless something special occurs to warrant higher prior to stud fee 2006 announcement time.

Respectfully

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:31 pm

FOS, I agree with everything you say and in this case it will probably work to the advantage of the breeders. I will try to get everything I plan to breed to NA at 25K. Last year they only accepted one of my mares but maybe I will have better luck this year. I still stand by my system and I know NA is tremendous value at anything close to 25k. Thanks for your comments as always.
best regards Brendan

bcassidy
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Postby bcassidy » Thu Sep 08, 2005 6:33 pm

What do others think of Menifee and More than Ready? both are getting very good scores in my system. More than Ready's offspring on the turf are doing quite well. I really like both of these stallions.
best regards Brendan

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henthorn
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Postby henthorn » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:50 am

I was not happy with the conformation of Menifee when I saw him two years ago and have not seen his foals. He was a great racehorse and I love his family ties.

More Than Ready is the real deal, and is getting a great start.
Rocking H

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henthorn
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Postby henthorn » Fri Sep 09, 2005 9:51 am

I was not happy with the conformation of Menifee when I saw him two years ago and have not seen his foals. He was a great racehorse and I love his family ties.

More Than Ready is the real deal, and is getting a great start.
Rocking H