Mixed Marriage Statistics - where am I going wrong?

Understanding pedigrees, inbreeding, dosage, etc.

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Galejade
Weanling
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Mixed Marriage Statistics - where am I going wrong?

Postby Galejade » Fri Jan 27, 2006 10:39 pm

Because I have a couple of mares containing the mare Mixed Marriage in their pedigree I have been looking at some statistics and nicks to hope for divine inspiration.


My Goldmine program tells me there are 530 group winners (GW's) containing Mixed Marriage of which 5 contain a duplication.

My Del Mar database says that born after 1993 ( to tie in with Goldmine) there are 10709 horses containing mixed marriage in their pedigrees of which 312 have a duplication.


Something must be wrong because a duplication of mixed marriage gives a 5/312 = 1.6% of GW's which might just about be possible but

a single content of Mixed marriage yieds a 530/10709 = 4.95% of GW's


Presumably I have a figure way too low for horses containing Mixed Marriage. Anyone suggest where I can get a better handle?
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Last edited by Galejade on Thu Feb 03, 2011 12:37 am, edited 1 time in total.

llbean
Grade III Winner
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Postby llbean » Mon Jan 30, 2006 12:48 pm

Hi Galejade,

PedigreeQuery contains 50% of the registered Thoroughbred born in a particular year at best so if you want the whole story you'll have to break down and buy the info from the Jockey Club.

Also, bear in mind that the GSW % on Mixed Marriage could be higher than would seem reasonable even after getting the complete data given that a lot of her descendants come through Gone West (a sire with much better than average stats).

-llbean
"What happened is merely a sample of what might have happened, weighted by probability."
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