Second thoughts about Point Given?

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phil8841
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Second thoughts about Point Given?

Postby phil8841 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 7:23 am

I am, as they say, a first-time poster, long-time lurker. :D A few months ago, there were a couple of discussions about Point Given as a stallion and it seemed the general consensus was "great racehorse, lousy stallion."

Since that time, he's turned things around a bit. He's the leading second-crop sire based on 2006 earnings and not only has a couple of good three-year olds, but at least one really good 2 year old this year.

I don't pretend to know much of anything about the breeding business, I'm just a fan of horses and horse racing in general. I do know that one year does not make a career, but, I am curious as to whether anybody has changed their mind about Point Given's chances as a successful sire based on how his 3 year old and current 2 year old crops are turning out.
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Re: Second thoughts about Point Given?

Postby horsenuts » Mon Sep 11, 2006 9:13 am

phil8841 wrote:I am, as they say, a first-time poster, long-time lurker. :D A few months ago, there were a couple of discussions about Point Given as a stallion and it seemed the general consensus was "great racehorse, lousy stallion."

Since that time, he's turned things around a bit. He's the leading second-crop sire based on 2006 earnings and not only has a couple of good three-year olds, but at least one really good 2 year old this year.

I don't pretend to know much of anything about the breeding business, I'm just a fan of horses and horse racing in general. I do know that one year does not make a career, but, I am curious as to whether anybody has changed their mind about Point Given's chances as a successful sire based on how his 3 year old and current 2 year old crops are turning out.


He's proving to be a very good sire capable of producing "the big horse" which is what people at the upper echelon are looking for. I was VERY skeptical of PG when he went to stud but he is fast changing my mind.

When it comes to studs I'm from Missouri. One thing I have learned is you can never tell which stallions will "have it" and which won't. Many of the top sires down through history were homily with confirmation flaws(sometimes seroius flaws) BUT they "had it". And a stud either has "it" or he doesn't. PG obviously has a good deal of "it" in his offspring. Not all that surprising based on how much class and ability PG showed when racing.

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Postby FOS » Mon Sep 11, 2006 10:42 am

hi phil8841

I submit that breeding to Point Given can be particularly risky business if your intention is to ultimately sell the offspring at auction. That said...for those interested in getting their hands on a nicely conformed good-looking Point Given, searching one out that suits your taste is likely the best route.

I suggest...beware...if you intend to breed to him.

Respectfully

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Postby chicago78 » Mon Sep 11, 2006 3:22 pm

I like him. I'm usually a lurker too, but was involved in the conversations about him a few months ago. He gets some real nice quality horses, and this years two year olds are running much better than last year. Point Ashley is his first grade 1 winner, but Go Between and Point Determined are grade 1 caliber horses. He gets fillies and colts so far, and they are going to get better with age. For breeding to race, or buying one at auction, I like him a lot.

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Postby louis finochio » Mon Sep 11, 2006 6:21 pm

PG has a pedigree that reads a blend of speed thru Mr. P, RAN, and Relaunch.

PG has the following stamina late maturing ancestors. The Axe II---Arctic Explorer---Fomento (ARG)---Round Table---On-and On---Tamerlane---high Hat---New Providence---and Seven Corners.

PG is too be judged when he has sired 4-5 crops and then he can be labled a hit or miss.

Arch and Alphabet Soup have followed the same stamina and late maturing pattern as PG is a buy and hold at this time.
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Postby kimberley mine » Tue Sep 12, 2006 10:25 am

Louis, that's certainly true, but Arch and Alphabet Soup were MUCH less aggressively priced than Point Given.

Arch started out at $15,000. Point Given started at $125,000, dropped to $100,000, then $75,000, and now stands for $50,000. A commercial breeder who feels (or perhaps more appropriately FEARS) that the stud fee of a given horse will fall 25% between this year and next year will be VERY wary of breeding to that stallion.

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Postby phil8841 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 1:38 pm

I could be wrong, but I thought Point Given stood for $125,000 his first year and then dropped to $75,000 for 2003 and 2004 and has been at $50,000 since. It's not a big issue in the grand scheme of things but that's what I recall.

I agree that Point Given seems to have been overvalued during his first year, although that seems to be a fairly common trait among stallion owners. I'm not saying he's worth his original $125,000 stud fee, but it seems that he may be appropriately priced at this point (or at least within reason, looking at his current results).
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Postby casallc » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:05 pm

Point Given is 7th on the Second Year sire list. At $50,000 his stud fee is still $10,000 higher than any other horse on the list. A mistake was made by placing his stud fee so high, stigmatizing the horse for years to come. At $50K there could be a little room for profit for a market breeder.
He was a good racehorse and not a bad individual but I wouldn't breed to him unless it was to market the offspring. When you consider the cost involved in the type of quality mare to breed to him and the cost to raise a foal to racing age you could easily have another $100K involved. For someone who wants a racehorse, its is proven you would be better off to buy one. A friend who has spent a fortune on mares, studs, vets, etc. sold all his stock and now buys 10 yearlings each year. He puts them all into training together then culls all but 2 or 3. He is now making a little money and having a lot of fun. He knows it might be more profitable just to buy a horse that has already proven himself but that takes the pride of selection out of it. How much money has that pride cost us all.

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Postby chicago78 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:22 pm

Point Given's fee was dropped in the second year because his onwer, who had retained a good bit of the horse, Prince Salman, owner of the Thoroughbred Corp died in a car accident before he stood his second season. So Point Given lost much of the support that he was supposed to have gotten.

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Postby phil8841 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 3:48 pm

[quote="casallc"]Point Given is 7th on the Second Year sire list. At $50,000 his stud fee is still $10,000 higher than any other horse on the list. A mistake was made by placing his stud fee so high, stigmatizing the horse for years to come. At $50K there could be a little room for profit for a market breeder.[quote]

I guess it depends on which sire list you look at. He's #1 by 2006 earnings, #7 by 2005 and 2006 earnings (still not bad considering he was about 30th at the end of 2005). And yes, he is the highest price stallion on the board. I think Tiznow is second at $40,000 and he has had the opposite results of Point Given. Tiznow had a good freshman year (primarily with Folklore) and has had a dismal 2006, although that might pick up as the fall wears on.

Anyway, as I said before I don't pretend to know the ins and outs of the breeding industry. But, it seems to me that those who breed on the high end (i.e. high stud fees) are pretty much taking a significant gamble anyway. At $50,000, Point Given seems to be a reasonable gamble -- at least for those breeding to race. I suppose the next few days will say a lot about how resonable the gamble is for those breeding to sell.
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Postby oliverstoned » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:16 pm

If you took any allowance winning son of Thunder Gulch and bred him to the mares PG got you would have the same amount or more "big" horses.
His percentage of SWs will never cut it, even giving time for them to mature. In the coming years he won't be getting the quality mares he's started with and will finish his carrer standing in NY for 5-10K.

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Postby phil8841 » Tue Sep 12, 2006 5:32 pm

oliverstoned wrote:If you took any allowance winning son of Thunder Gulch and bred him to the mares PG got you would have the same amount or more "big" horses.
His percentage of SWs will never cut it, even giving time for them to mature. In the coming years he won't be getting the quality mares he's started with and will finish his carrer standing in NY for 5-10K.


Interesting theory. According to the equineline statistical summary, PG is improving his mares. The AEI is 2.43 against his comparable index of 2.33. It's not a lot, but it's more than some of the "big name" stallions. Maybe an allowance winner would have done the same, or better. That's the fun of this game, you just never know.

And, he may very well end up in NY, Ohio, or some foreign country standing for the cost of hay -- again, it's an unknown. But, I looked at the stats for Grand Slam (also standing for $50,000) and the percentages are fairly similar to PG, although Grand Slam's stakes winner percentage was 5% as compared to PG's current 3%. For somebody like me with no actual money at stake, it promises to be an interesting process as he progresses with his stud career.
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Postby henthorn » Wed Sep 13, 2006 6:49 am

Hi, guys. Welcome to phil and oliver. I'm of the "wait and see" camp regarding almost any stallion's chances. So many factors play a role, such as owner and consignor support, stallion management, commercial or breed-to-race clientele, and precocity or lack of it. Speed and stamina and aggressiveness, and other phenotype factors also need to complement or supplement lots of the selected mares in order to bring about any significant number of superior racehorses.

Most stallions never make it, some make it sooner and some later. And some others who make it initially tail off over time due to fertility or health issues, or to changes in the mare population chosen for matings.
It's a big puzzle with lots of pieces missing. :twisted:
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Postby kimberley mine » Wed Sep 13, 2006 6:53 am

oliverstoned wrote:If you took any allowance winning son of Thunder Gulch and bred him to the mares PG got you would have the same amount or more "big" horses.



If you follow that line of thought, you don't need an allowance winning son of Thunder Gulch. You can go to Thunder Gulch himself for half of Point Given's fee.

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Postby FOS » Wed Sep 13, 2006 12:37 pm

hi chicago78...hello all

As I've said before, "I submit that breeding to Point Given can be particularly risky business if your intention is to ultimately sell the offspring at auction."

chicago78 wrote:Point Given's fee was dropped in the second year because his onwer, who had retained a good bit of the horse, Prince Salman, owner of the Thoroughbred Corp died in a car accident before he stood his second season. So Point Given lost much of the support that he was supposed to have gotten.

Certainly Ahmed Salman's Thoroughbred Corp would have bred numerous high quality mares to young Point Given had Salman's heart-related problem not caused his untimely demise...but reality is too, that the young stallion prospect's initial $125,000 advertised stud fee coupled with negative commentary that was heard from so many horsemen/women re: his conformation, arguably did NOT help either.

Even subsequent stud fee reductions didn't seem to much (if any) enhance his appeal.

Reality is, today, that PG has proven that he can clearly sire some quality runners. That said...his sales numbers thus far, at least when compared to production costs (including stud fee/s) seem to raise serious questions. It seems evident (based on sales results), at least to date, that Point Given's offspring (in general) have not been particularly highly sought after at the sales. I expect that PG's general lack of sales appeal has been more an indicator of what he gets physically, than what he had accomplished (or not) as a racehorse sire at the time those sales horses were offered. Arguably, Point Given was young enough that if his sales horses were the kind that the market swoons over (even before he came up with notable runners), they would have sold well. I suggest, the same holds true today.

Now that PG is getting some quality runners, maybe the market will be more lenient and buyers might be willing to pay more (for the PGs) than in the past (all things being equal)...but I doubt that how the Point Givens are made or what they look like (in general) will change, or that pinhookers (who often drive the market) will lower their bar.

I still suggest Strongly that anyone intending to breed to PG should be aware of his conformation and understand that for the most part his offspring have arguably Not been particularly well received at the sales (as evidenced by the sales results) thus far. It might be prudent to be EXTREMELY selective when determining which mare/s might be best suited physically to enhance the chances to produce a quality foal.

For those breeders playing the numbers game and/or those whose future in thoroughbred breeding will not be compromised if the results are less (possibly much less) than what was hoped for...and for those that can absorb such a possible financial blow...PG might be a viable choice. That said...I still sense that for most, breeding to him is very risky business and arguably offers a hard-to-swallow or possibly difficult-to-justify risk versus reward ratio.

All that said...the racing prowess of some of his current runners offers legitimate hope that PG could become a dependable source of quality racehorses and potential classics threats. Based on the PGs that I've seen thus far though...I sense that searching one out that suits your taste versus the dream of breeding that kind, might be the wiser direction for most to go.

Respectfully