I'm watching TVG, Hoosier... and a white horse named Spot Of Beauty just ran in the 10th. Now, that is something I don't believe I've ever seen at Hoosier Park. Started out slow but got up for 3rd... not bad. It's a 2YO... didn't look at PPs or anything so I have no idea if this was a first race or not. Interesting... Are white horses becoming more common or am I just hearing more about them lately?
OK, off to watch race #11, the Indy Mood baby who won the Gus Grissom Stakes is racing back tonight...
Speaking of White Horses...
Moderators: Roguelet, hpkingjr, WaveMaster
Speaking of White Horses...
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"Don't be a boorish buffoon" -Hokies Respect 'Jerk Alert'
"Don't be a boorish buffoon" -Hokies Respect 'Jerk Alert'
Spot Of Beauty won by around 9 lengths today at Beulah
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... E=1&BorP=B
http://www.pedigreequery.com/spot+of+beauty
http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbPDFC ... E=1&BorP=B
http://www.pedigreequery.com/spot+of+beauty
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JimbleBrimble
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Roguelet wrote:But what in the heck is she doing at Hoosier??? Shoot, maybe she's been here all along and I've just never paid attention.
Uhhhhhhh, to date it seems the white horses of the breed don't measure up performance-wise to their darker counterparts yet, because of their worth in other ways, they neeeeeeeeeed to race at places where they can be competitive and NOT entered in claiming races.
For this reason Hoosier is exactly the sort of a venue that suits the white horses.
As of last summer no white throughbred had ever won as many as four races, yet they are truly a spectacle.
Lastly, they are becoming more common these days with active families out west and in the east both possessing the white gene.
I don't think we should be at all surprised that the white TBs are not particularly successful, and I don't think it reflects poorly on them.
If ~35,000 TB foals are registered annually in the US, we might consider the number of TBs of racing age to be ~O(100,000) (ie, on the order of 100,000).
Consider the number of white TBs of racing age each year to be ~O(10). This is a recent phenomenon due to breeding efforts--the number has only been this high for ~5 years. It used to be much much smaller.
I am going to consider that the number of 'successful' racehorses at any given time to be ~O(100).
We therefore expect that 10/100,000 horses are white and 100/100,000 are successful.
We therefore expect 100*10/100,000 successful white horses in any given year which is 1/100 = 0.01
Therefore with O(10) white horses racing each year, to a useful approximation a successful white horse should come around every O(100) years. Given we've only had O(10) white horses for ~5 years, it should therefore not surprise us at all that we haven't seen a successful white one yet.
Of course with The White Fox now at stud, we can anticipate that the number of white horses will increase at a faster rate. Maybe in a decade or so we can start 'expecting' a good one.
If ~35,000 TB foals are registered annually in the US, we might consider the number of TBs of racing age to be ~O(100,000) (ie, on the order of 100,000).
Consider the number of white TBs of racing age each year to be ~O(10). This is a recent phenomenon due to breeding efforts--the number has only been this high for ~5 years. It used to be much much smaller.
I am going to consider that the number of 'successful' racehorses at any given time to be ~O(100).
We therefore expect that 10/100,000 horses are white and 100/100,000 are successful.
We therefore expect 100*10/100,000 successful white horses in any given year which is 1/100 = 0.01
Therefore with O(10) white horses racing each year, to a useful approximation a successful white horse should come around every O(100) years. Given we've only had O(10) white horses for ~5 years, it should therefore not surprise us at all that we haven't seen a successful white one yet.
Of course with The White Fox now at stud, we can anticipate that the number of white horses will increase at a faster rate. Maybe in a decade or so we can start 'expecting' a good one.
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JimbleBrimble
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That was a nice try, except that you seem woefully unaware of from where white horses come.
Do you believe that the sudden rash of white horses was triggered by an animal from The Lone Ranger suddenly reincarnated "5 years ago"? A registered thoroughbred, no less?
White horses have, in fact, been around for generations, and you're sadly mistaken if you believe that scores upon scores of white horses will result from people suddenly lining up to breed to a stallion who managed only a narrow maiden win at River Downs.
You should really work on your data, too, as even Patchen Beauty is twelve now, so where did you come up with this "5 years" crap?
Furthermore, this isn't about "successful race horses". This is about naming a white Thoroughbred who could even finish in front more than twice.
Good luck doing at least that before professing to shoot for "successful (White, Thoroughbred) race horses".
Do you believe that the sudden rash of white horses was triggered by an animal from The Lone Ranger suddenly reincarnated "5 years ago"? A registered thoroughbred, no less?
White horses have, in fact, been around for generations, and you're sadly mistaken if you believe that scores upon scores of white horses will result from people suddenly lining up to breed to a stallion who managed only a narrow maiden win at River Downs.
You should really work on your data, too, as even Patchen Beauty is twelve now, so where did you come up with this "5 years" crap?
Furthermore, this isn't about "successful race horses". This is about naming a white Thoroughbred who could even finish in front more than twice.
Good luck doing at least that before professing to shoot for "successful (White, Thoroughbred) race horses".
I think a good horse can be any color (Candy Spots anyone?) but breeding for color doesn't necessarily make for a good racehorse. That's especially true when unsuccessful racehorses are going to stud apparently only because they are a certain color and might pass that color on.
So I guess I'm pretty skeptical that there will be an all white superstar out there anytime soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more All Glory To Gods and Allamystiques because people seem to be breeding for them.
So I guess I'm pretty skeptical that there will be an all white superstar out there anytime soon. But I wouldn't be surprised if we see a lot more All Glory To Gods and Allamystiques because people seem to be breeding for them.
JimbleBrimble,
My analysis is an order of magnitude estimate. The whole point of this exercise is that you start out with common sense and almost no data then see what the order of magnitude of the answer should be.
Every single point I made is a gross simplification but has some basis in reality.
For example, let me explain where I pulled 5 years from. '5 years' is crap by construction in the sense that I'm not sure if it's closer to 1 year or 10 years and I'm pretty sure white horses weren't just created at a steady rate of 10 racing/year 5 years ago, but it does help me model the number of white TBs racing annually and it helps me make a prediction in terms people can understand.
Based on my experience studying white TBs, I observe that the number of white racing TBs is dramatically higher now than it was before. Here is where I think this comes from:
There seem to be 2 main kinds of white--the Puchilingui and Not Quite White kind, which is sometimes completely white and sometimes an all-over sabino roaning, and the White Beauty kind which seems to be more often all-white. Puchilingui and Airdrie Apache are the primary sources of the first kind. Puchilingui has had foals on the ground for ~10 years and has very small crops, Airdrie Apache for ~5 years. Patchen Beauty is the most important producer of whites from the White Beauty line, producing ~one annually since 2002. Before these 3 major producers, white was passed on maternally in low yield and as crop-outs, meaning there were few white horses per year. In the last ~10 years, Puchilingui produced a couple more, but it's been especially in the last ~5 years with Airdrie Apache and Patchen Beauty that we've seen an increase in the number (soon we will see another spike when their offspring start getting crops on the track).
In the absence of data giving me the exact number each year for the past 100 years, I went by my experience which tells me that a) ~10 years ago the number of white horses racing annually was O(1) not O(10), b) today it's O(10), and c) ~5 years ago Airdrie Apache and Patchen Beauty caused a spike in the number of whites. In order to come up with a simple model that can make predictions which we can appreciate, I model this using a step function of magnitude 10 starting 5 years ago.
If you have questions about other steps feel free to pm me.
(IMO the shakiest assumption I have made is completely neglecting the correlation between pedigree and ability, but accounting for that is certainly much more involved...)
My analysis is an order of magnitude estimate. The whole point of this exercise is that you start out with common sense and almost no data then see what the order of magnitude of the answer should be.
Every single point I made is a gross simplification but has some basis in reality.
For example, let me explain where I pulled 5 years from. '5 years' is crap by construction in the sense that I'm not sure if it's closer to 1 year or 10 years and I'm pretty sure white horses weren't just created at a steady rate of 10 racing/year 5 years ago, but it does help me model the number of white TBs racing annually and it helps me make a prediction in terms people can understand.
Based on my experience studying white TBs, I observe that the number of white racing TBs is dramatically higher now than it was before. Here is where I think this comes from:
There seem to be 2 main kinds of white--the Puchilingui and Not Quite White kind, which is sometimes completely white and sometimes an all-over sabino roaning, and the White Beauty kind which seems to be more often all-white. Puchilingui and Airdrie Apache are the primary sources of the first kind. Puchilingui has had foals on the ground for ~10 years and has very small crops, Airdrie Apache for ~5 years. Patchen Beauty is the most important producer of whites from the White Beauty line, producing ~one annually since 2002. Before these 3 major producers, white was passed on maternally in low yield and as crop-outs, meaning there were few white horses per year. In the last ~10 years, Puchilingui produced a couple more, but it's been especially in the last ~5 years with Airdrie Apache and Patchen Beauty that we've seen an increase in the number (soon we will see another spike when their offspring start getting crops on the track).
In the absence of data giving me the exact number each year for the past 100 years, I went by my experience which tells me that a) ~10 years ago the number of white horses racing annually was O(1) not O(10), b) today it's O(10), and c) ~5 years ago Airdrie Apache and Patchen Beauty caused a spike in the number of whites. In order to come up with a simple model that can make predictions which we can appreciate, I model this using a step function of magnitude 10 starting 5 years ago.
If you have questions about other steps feel free to pm me.
(IMO the shakiest assumption I have made is completely neglecting the correlation between pedigree and ability, but accounting for that is certainly much more involved...)
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JimbleBrimble
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Nerd, why must you continuously include everyone else in your far-fetched and poorly conceived efforts here?
When stepping out on a limb or a gang-plank of your own, at least be adult enough to admit it. There is no "you start out...", there is no "we expect...", there is no "should not surprise us at all...".
Your erroneous assumptions and lacking data remain yours and yours alone - at least be mature enough to admit as much.
Had you actually "studied" the data, you would remain challenged to name any white registered Thoroughbred who has ever finished first more than twice.
As for Airdrie Apache, do you know that his 2nd leading White money earner has career earnings of $1200, after three career starts, none of which found him within 38 lengths of the winner. He beat one horse in his life!
He got $1200 just because of the starters bonus at Hollywood.
When stepping out on a limb or a gang-plank of your own, at least be adult enough to admit it. There is no "you start out...", there is no "we expect...", there is no "should not surprise us at all...".
Your erroneous assumptions and lacking data remain yours and yours alone - at least be mature enough to admit as much.
Had you actually "studied" the data, you would remain challenged to name any white registered Thoroughbred who has ever finished first more than twice.
As for Airdrie Apache, do you know that his 2nd leading White money earner has career earnings of $1200, after three career starts, none of which found him within 38 lengths of the winner. He beat one horse in his life!
He got $1200 just because of the starters bonus at Hollywood.
ooookay, it appears you either did not read or chose to ignore everything I just said. I don't want to get into a fight here but I would really appreciate it if you would at least do me the courtesy of taking a minute to read and consider what I have posted before you start insulting me. You can insult me all you want afterwards.
All I have done is taken the statement "white TBs are so rare that it isn't surprising that we haven't seen a successful one yet" and backed it up with a simple, order of magnitude, numerical model. Basically there are two main hypotheses for why white TBs suck on the track, 1) white TBs inherently suck and 2) they don't inherently suck but there are so few that we haven't seen good ones yet. I was arguing that (2) cannot be rejected. Sorry I wasn't more explicit about that.
How am I including anyone else? How am I doing so in a continuous fashion?
I guess I probably should have explicitly stated I was doing an order of magnitude estimate, but usually the Landau notation (big O) is sufficient to show this.
1. See previous comment in reference to assumptions and lack of data
2. Again, how is anyone else involved in this?
3. You have not actually managed to refute any of my assumptions
It was never my intent to do so. My intent was to rationalize why it is reasonable that we have *not* seen successful white TBs.
This is completely irrelevant to my analysis and if you had read any of what I wrote you would know that.
All I have done is taken the statement "white TBs are so rare that it isn't surprising that we haven't seen a successful one yet" and backed it up with a simple, order of magnitude, numerical model. Basically there are two main hypotheses for why white TBs suck on the track, 1) white TBs inherently suck and 2) they don't inherently suck but there are so few that we haven't seen good ones yet. I was arguing that (2) cannot be rejected. Sorry I wasn't more explicit about that.
JimbleBrimble wrote:Nerd, why must you continuously include everyone else in your far-fetched and poorly conceived efforts here?
How am I including anyone else? How am I doing so in a continuous fashion?
JimbleBrimble wrote:When stepping out on a limb or a gang-plank of your own, at least be adult enough to admit it. There is no "you start out...", there is no "we expect...", there is no "should not surprise us at all...".
I guess I probably should have explicitly stated I was doing an order of magnitude estimate, but usually the Landau notation (big O) is sufficient to show this.
JimbleBrimble wrote:Your erroneous assumptions and lacking data remain yours and yours alone - at least be mature enough to admit as much.
1. See previous comment in reference to assumptions and lack of data
2. Again, how is anyone else involved in this?
3. You have not actually managed to refute any of my assumptions
JimbleBrimble wrote:Had you actually "studied" the data, you would remain challenged to name any white registered Thoroughbred who has ever finished first more than twice.
It was never my intent to do so. My intent was to rationalize why it is reasonable that we have *not* seen successful white TBs.
JimbleBrimble wrote:As for Airdrie Apache, do you know that his 2nd leading White money earner has career earnings of $1200, after three career starts, none of which found him within 38 lengths of the winner. He beat one horse in his life!
He got $1200 just because of the starters bonus at Hollywood.
This is completely irrelevant to my analysis and if you had read any of what I wrote you would know that.
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StayOutFront
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JimbleBrimble wrote:
Had you actually "studied" the data, you would remain challenged to name any white registered Thoroughbred who has ever finished first more than twice.
Grand Espoir Blanc won three races and sported - arguably - the best bloodlines. He was by One For All, out of a What A Pleasure mare. He earned $35,530, a nice sum in the 1980s. (and yes, JimbleBrimble, I realize you are being tricky - he finished second by a neck 5/12/88, but as the winner impeded him and he was moved to first it counts as a win - hence his record is three wins)
Patchen Beauty was the most successful, financially, thus far - just over $54,000.
Twenty-one white Thoroughbreds were registered between the first, White Beauty (1963), through 2002 (five-year-olds this year). Some (not sure how many) were never intended to race, such as Precious Beauty, Late N White, and Pure White Gold. That throws stats off a bit.
Other winners include White Beauty, Clarence Stewart, White Flight, Directs Unique One, Allamystique and The White Fox.
It seems pedigrees play the most important role so far. Patchen Beauty (Hatchet Man) and Grand Espoir Blanc (One For All) had a leg up on some, and they were the best racers. Now Spot Of Beauty - by Skip Away out a Hatchet Man mare - is a winner, too. As white TBs become more 'common,' as JB mentioned early in the thread - including sires such as Skip Away, Pioneering, Rob 'n Gin and Trust N Luck - it seems the numbers will improve.
Just a few decades back, even regular old 'flashy' horses were quite rare (hence Jorge's search for oldsters with blazes and stockings, such as Top Flight and Salvator). And Tesio considered gray to be a disease, rather than a color....
Just tossing some info out there - no interest in any fights/debates. I just think these critters are visually very interesting.